Poland is poised to surpass Japan in GDP per capita by 2026, according to projections from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. In 1990, Poland’s GDP per capita was $12,810, significantly lower than Japan’s $35,306. However, by 2023, Poland reached $43,585, nearly catching up to Japan’s $45,949—a remarkable gain of over $30,000 per person in a single generation. This growth is attributed in part to economic expert Leszek Balcerowicz’s guidance and Poland’s embrace of free markets during its democratic transition. While Japan’s GDP growth is projected at 1% for 2025 and 2026, following a contraction in 2024, Poland’s growth was nearly 3% in 2024 and is expected to be higher in the coming years.
Strengthening European Ties
On May 9, France and Poland signed a new friendship and cooperation treaty in Nancy, replacing their outdated 1991 accord. French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk for the signing, calling it “historic.” Nancy was chosen symbolically due to the historical ties forged when exiled Polish King Stanisław Leszczyński became Duke of Lorraine there in 1736. This “premium treaty,” the first of its kind for France with a non-neighboring country, includes enhanced mutual security guarantees and closer defense cooperation. It was also suggested to mark Poland’s upcoming six-month EU presidency. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s recent visit to Paris further underscores France’s strategy of consolidating European leadership with its Polish and German partners.
Advancing Nuclear Energy and Energy Security
U.S. firms Westinghouse Electric and Bechtel signed a contract with Poland’s state-owned Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe (PEJ) on April 28 to continue designing Poland’s first nuclear power plant. This agreement follows the expiration of an initial contract. Poland selected Westinghouse in 2022 for the project, estimated at 192 billion zloty ($51 billion), as it seeks to reduce its reliance on coal. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright highlighted this as the beginning of long-term nuclear cooperation between the U.S. and Poland. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also discussed future cooperation on small nuclear reactors and liquefied natural gas (LNG), as Poland diversifies its gas supplies with U.S. LNG.
Preparing for Zapad-2025 Military Drills
Poland’s defense minister, Cezary Tomczyk, announced that Poland will take “adequate” measures in response to the Zapad-2025 military exercises, organized by Russia and Belarus for September. Speaking to RMF24 radio, Tomczyk stated that both Polish armed forces and NATO would respond with extensive drills and significant maneuvers in Poland. He emphasized NATO’s strength, referencing last year’s largest-ever NATO exercises involving approximately 100,000 soldiers. The Zapad exercises have been held quadrennially since 2009, with the 2021 drills, involving over 200,000 troops, later revealed as preparations for the invasion of Ukraine. Tomczyk concluded that “signals concerning Russia and Belarus are always worrisome.”
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