U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated tensions with Russia and its trading partners, stating that Russia’s economy is weak and that lower oil prices will hinder its military efforts. In an interview with CNBC, Trump claimed that a further $10 drop in oil prices would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict with Ukraine, as the Russian economy is struggling.
The relationship between the two countries, which was initially stable during Trump’s second term, has recently deteriorated. Trump has grown impatient with Russia’s lack of progress toward a ceasefire and has given Putin an ultimatum to reach a peace deal with Ukraine within two weeks, threatening significant tariffs on Russia’s trading partners otherwise.
This prompted former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to warn that Trump’s ultimatums could lead to a broader conflict. In response, Trump announced he had ordered nuclear submarines to be deployed.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is largely financed by oil exports, and while Western sanctions have aimed to cut off this funding, countries like India and China have continued to purchase discounted Russian crude. This has angered Trump, who has threatened India with substantial tariffs, possibly exceeding 25%, unless it stops buying Russian oil, accusing New Delhi of profiting by reselling the crude.
The Kremlin has responded by defending India’s right to choose its own trading partners, calling Trump’s threats “illegitimate.” The Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, stated that sovereign nations should be free to make their own trade decisions.
The price of Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell following OPEC’s decision to increase output and Trump’s comments. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy faces increasing challenges from international sanctions and domestic issues like high inflation, which Putin himself has acknowledged as “alarming.” Russia’s Economic Development Ministry forecasts a slowdown in economic growth this year.
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